New orders in German manufacturing rose 4.4% in September from August, according to provisional figures published on 5 November. The price-adjusted increase, corrected for seasonal and calendar effects, recovers part of the previous month’s sharp fall.
August’s decline was revised to 10.1%. Over the third quarter as a whole, orders were only 0.2% higher than in the second quarter. The strong September figure therefore does not by itself establish a sustained industrial recovery.
Cars and machinery lead the rise
Automotive orders increased 10.5% month on month after a low level in the preceding two months, partly associated with factory holidays and production changeovers. Machinery and equipment orders rose 8.3%, including a substantial engines-and-turbines contract.
The improvement was not limited to very large contracts. Excluding large-scale orders, total new orders increased 5.1% in September. On the less volatile quarterly comparison, however, that measure rose just 0.1%.
Orders are not completed production
Domestic orders grew 6.6% and foreign orders 2.8%. At the same time, real manufacturing turnover increased only 0.2% over the month. Orders describe incoming demand; they do not mean that the goods have already been produced and sold.
The next releases will show whether the rebound extends beyond September. For the wider European economy, the important question is whether stronger demand becomes a sequence of production and sales gains rather than a single month’s recovery from a weak base.
