International travel is forecast to reach 1.57 billion overnight arrivals in 2026, even as conflict, higher fares and pressure on household budgets reshape where people go. The new WTM Global Travel Report projects 2% growth worldwide, with Europe expected to gain 5%.
The report was presented on 3 November at World Travel Market in London and was produced with Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics. It draws on travel flows across more than 185 countries. The annual figures remain forecasts, rather than a final count for a year that has not yet ended.
A shift towards shorter journeys is central to the outlook. Travel within the same region is forecast to increase by 3%, while journeys between regions decline by 3%. Higher costs and disruption around Gulf aviation hubs are among the pressures on long-haul travel. A rising global total can therefore coexist with sharp losses in particular destinations.
The Middle East is forecast to record a 40% decline in international arrivals this year. An anticipated rebound in 2027 would not immediately restore the previous peak. Those recovery projections depend on conditions improving and could be delayed by renewed conflict or continuing disruption.
For travellers, the report describes changing demand rather than promising cheaper fares or uninterrupted routes. For destinations, its importance is the different pace of recovery: growth in Europe does not mean every resort, airline or accommodation provider benefits equally. The emerging pattern is continued appetite for holidays, with more attention to distance, cost and perceived safety.
