BMW has lowered its full-year forecast for the reported operating margin of its automotive business to between minus 0.5% and plus 0.5%, from 1–3%. The change announced on 4 November reflects additional portfolio and structural measures expected to weigh on fourth-quarter earnings.
The company still expects the automotive margin before those measures to exceed 2%. It also maintains its forecast for automotive free cash flow of more than €2.5 billion in 2026. The distinction separates the cost of the accelerated reorganisation from the company's underlying operating expectations.
China offsets gains elsewhere
Third-quarter group profit before tax reached €2.083 billion, down 10.6% from a year earlier. Deliveries fell 6.3% to 551,075 vehicles, with growth in Europe and the United States unable to compensate fully for weaker demand in China.
Chinese deliveries declined by roughly a quarter. Fully electric vehicles accounted for 20% of worldwide third-quarter deliveries, while electric and plug-in hybrid models together represented 27.4%. The figures show the simultaneous pressures of regional competition and the shift in the product mix.
A faster move to the Neue Klasse
BMW is accelerating the rollout of its Neue Klasse technologies and considering earlier phase-outs for selected previous-generation models and battery technology. Additional production shifts are intended to support the ramp-up of the new range.
Organisational changes are also being brought forward, including reductions in management functions. The company presents these measures as a route to stronger future margins, but their near-term accounting effect is the reason the reported full-year forecast has been reduced.
The fourth quarter will therefore be important on two fronts: whether new-model demand supports the production shift, and how heavily the restructuring costs affect the reported result. The revised margin forecast should not be confused with a forecast for the group's net profit, which is a different measure.
